Session Recap

Westrends Board

79th CSG West Annual Meeting
Salt Lake City, Utah

Introduction

The CSG West Westrends Board examined the state of the U.S.-Canada security relationship at a moment of unusual strain, shaped by tariff disputes and a broader recalibration of U.S. trade and defense posture. Henry Ziemer, fellow with the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) framed the relationship as one under real pressure but still anchored by decades of interoperability, shared infrastructure, and economic complementarity.

For Western state legislators the session’s relevance was direct: cross-border organized crime, synthetic opioid trafficking, and money laundering networks do not respect jurisdictional lines while border security and defense-industrial decisions being made in Ottawa and Washington will influence the operating environment in Western states for years to come. Ziemer’s remarks followed opening comments from Westrends Board Co-Chair, Alberta MLA Tany Yao, who highlighted his province’s role in defense innovation, unmanned systems, and aerospace manufacturing. The session provided members an opportunity to ask questions and engage in open dialogue.

By bringing this international topic to state legislators, the session offered a closer look at both the risks of a fraying bilateral relationship and the concrete areas—including border security, defense procurement, and critical minerals—where continued cooperation remains achievable.

Key Takeaways

1. Security cooperation is strained, but not broken.

Ziemer described the current period as one of real tension and disruption in the bilateral relationship but stressed that shared history and economic ties continue to make the case for strengthening—not abandoning—cooperation.

Synthetic opioid trafficking is a growing threat on both sides of the border, though its scale and sources differ sharply: Data presented during the session showed the U.S. opioid overdose death rate reaching roughly 32 per 100,000 in 2021, compared with roughly 21 per 100,000 in Canada. Both countries have experienced upward trends since 2016: Mexico remains the primary source of synthetic opioids entering the U.S., while a larger share of Canada’s supply is produced domestically.

Northern-border fentanyl seizures remain comparatively small: Fentanyl seizures at the U.S. southwest border have reached hundreds or thousands of pounds per month since late 2024, while seizures at the northern border are typically a few pounds or less, aside from a brief spike to roughly 30 pounds in spring 2026. The comparison underscores that northern-border trafficking remains much smaller by volume, though not negligible.

Money laundering is a persistent vulnerability: Ziemer called for stronger counter-money-laundering protections as part of broader efforts to combat transborder organized crime.

Border security infrastructure remains uneven: Participants shared examples of slow response times along stretches of the northern border.

Jurisdictional complexity presents additional enforcement challenges: A map presented during the session showed the concentration of U.S. federally recognized tribal reservations and Canadian First Nation reserves along the Pacific Northwest and northern Plains border corridor, illustrating how jurisdictional gaps involving complicate enforcement against transborder organized crime—an issue warranting continued legislative attention.

*Henry Ziemer, a fellow with the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS,) discussing the U.S.-Canada border infastructure. Photos by Nathanael Peterson.*

2. Canada’s defense diversification is real, but interoperability with the U.S. remains the goal.

Canada is actively diversifying its defense procurement and industrial base, a trend with implications for U.S. suppliers and allied planning.

Canada has returned to NATO’s defense spending benchmark: Canada met NATO’s 2% of GDP defense spending target in 2025, a milestone Ziemer described as significant. Canadian defense spending had fallen from over 4% of GDP in the early 1960s to roughly 1% by the mid-2010s, before returning to the 2% threshold for the first time since the late 1980s.

Canada is broadening its fighter procurement options: Canada is procuring Saab’s JAS 39 Gripen aircraft and weighing a mixed fighter fleet alongside the F-35.

European defense ties are expanding: Canada recently selected a German firm for its new patrol submarine program, deepening its European defense ties.

The U.S. remains Canada’s dominant defense supplier, but its supplier base has broadened: Arms-import data showed that the United States has long been Canada’s dominant defense supplier, but the supplier base has broadened meaningfully since around 2015. The United Kingdom, Australia, Spain, and the Netherlands each account for a growing share of Canadian arms purchases.

Canada is balancing diversification with interoperability: Ziemer noted the political difficulty of diversifying defense relationships while preserving interoperability with U.S. forces—a balance Canada is actively trying to maintain.

*From left: Westrends Board Co-Chair MLA Tany Yao and Henry Ziemer.*

3. Trade friction and critical minerals are shaping near-term decisions.

Tariffs and critical minerals were central to both Ziemer’s prepared remarks and the Q&A that followed.

Tariffs currently apply to goods that are not USMCA-compliant, and Ziemer described ongoing efforts to bring more industries into compliance to reduce that exposure.

Oregon Senate President Pro Tempore James Manning highlighted the importance of energy cooperation alongside tariff policy as a stabilizing factor in U.S.-Canada relationship.

Canada was described as a potential critical-minerals superpower, and Ziemer identified the upcoming USMCA review as a key opportunity to secure stronger protections for critical minerals and labor rights.

A question from Utah Representative Christofferson’s about the status of tariffs underscored continued uncertainty among legislators and stakeholders about the direction of U.S.-Canada trade policy.

4. Three scenarios illustrate where the U.S.-Canada relationship could be headed by 2030.

Ziemer offered a scenario-planning framework, including rough likelihood assessments, that Western state legislators can use to track the relationship’s trajectory over the next several years.

Rupture (least likely): Cooperation breaks down on several fronts as Ottawa leans on China as a hedge against U.S. economic pressure, triggering a downward spiral of retaliation—a worst-case outcome for both countries. Ziemer said this scenario would require successive failures to reach a USMCA agreement or a unilateral U.S. withdrawal from it, combined with continued “51st state” rhetoric from Washington that reinforces a siege mentality among the Canadian public and elites, particularly within the Liberal Party.

Insulation (most likely): Canada and the U.S. remain allies while Ottawa continues building “insurance” against future disruptions through a more diversified portfolio of trade and defense relationships with Europe and Indo-Pacific partners. Ziemer called this a positive outcome for Canada, though one that could still leave underlying strains in the bilateral relationship unresolved. This scenario depends on sustained Canadian diversification efforts that produce more than symbolic agreements, alongside a USMCA review that may be difficult or prolonged but is ultimately successful.

Reconciliation (medium likelihood): The U.S. and Canada mend fences and return to a more positive relationship centered on a “Fortress North America” and Western Hemisphere orientation, potentially emerging stronger through renewed Canadian investment in defense and security. Zeimer said this path depends heavily on Washington’s approach toward Canada and would require both a relatively smooth USMCA renegotiation, an end to annexationist rhetoric, and, in his assessment, an apology for that rhetoric.

*Scene from the Westrends Board session.*

Looking Ahead

Several developments are worth tracking over the coming months.

The USMCA review process is likely to be a focal point:
Outcomes could affect tariff exposure, labor standards, and access to critical minerals across all three North American economies. Ziemer’s own baseline expectation, exemplified in the “insulation” scenario, suggests Canada will continue diversifying its trade and defense ties with Europe and the Indo-Pacific while remaining a U.S. ally. Legislators should watch whether that diversification stays largely symbolic or begins to meaningfully reshape Canadian sourcing and alliances. The U.S. has a personal stake in a strong Canada that embraces security, in Zeimer’s assessment, “Canada strong makes America great again.”

Pacific defense commitments warrant continued attention:
A question on the U.S. military footprint in Hawaii, raised in the context of potential lease renegotiations, highlighted a related issue that Western states with a Pacific-facing defense posture should continue to monitor, given its implications for regional security commitments.

Border security and financial enforcement will remain priorities:
Ziemer’s emphasis on protecting critical infrastructure and improving U.S.-Canada coordination also suggests that border security and counter-money-laundering measures will remain live legislative and administrative priorities, particularly given the gap in scale between southern and northern-border trafficking flows and the jurisdictional complexity along the northern border.

Cross-border defense partnerships present opportunities:
The Province of Alberta’s continued investment in unmanned systems, AI, quantum research, and aerospace manufacturing, highlighted in MLA Yao’s opening remarks, signals ongoing opportunities for defense-industrial partnerships between Western states and Canadian provinces—independent of how the broader federal relationship evolves.

Defense diversification will test interoperability:
Legislators should watch whether Canada’s defense diversification, such as the purchases of aircraft and submarine procurements, proceeds in a way that preserves current interoperability. This outcome will directly affect the ease of joint operations and information-sharing.

Final Reflection

The Westrends Board session’s central message was one of cautious continuity: the U.S.-Canada relationship is under real strain, but the underlying security, economic, and geographic ties that bind the two countries remain intact. For Western states, whose economies and border communities are directly affected by trafficking, trade policy, and defense-industrial decisions made at the federal level, continued engaged on these issues—and direct relationships with Canadian provinces like Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan—offer practical ways to protect state interests regardless of how the bilateral relationship evolves.